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My - Mother - Told - Me - To - Pick - The - Very - Best - One - And - You - Are - It, San Antonio

Okay, all I've got to say is the NBA better be good this season. Sans NHL, this is all the professional sports we've got right now - and considering the NBA includes the Eastern Conference, half the league doesn't really even count. So what I mean to say is, the Western Conference better be good this year. I know, I know: The NBA champion came from the East last year, Mr. Ornery Smarty Pants Man. Save it. I saw the Finals last year. I know what happened. And I know the Pistons still have as good a chance as any to take it again. But you've all seen the rest of the conference. It's disgusting. Detroit's "challengers" include a two-man show down in Florida, a darkhorse in Philly, a team that features Alvin Williams and Jason Collins in the starting lineup, and a team with a general manager (I won't name any names) who has practiced his managerial skills by playing one too many video games cough*Isiah Thomas*cough.

The unprecedented unbalance that has plagued the league the last few years is unfortunate, really - there are at least three teams in the West who won't make the playoffs this year, but would if only they were in the Eastern Conference. But alas, they have to compete with the league's most dominant player in San Antonio; the league's best trio in Minnesota; the league's best free-agent signing in Denver, coupled with the league's second-best 19-year-old; the league's best-coached team in Utah; the league's most purely talented team in Dallas; the league's most talented player with a solid supporting cast in L.A....and so forth. You get the point. It's gonna be a tough season out west. Unless your name is Tim Duncan. Without further ado . . .

2004-05 PREDICTIONS
(*denotes playoff teams)

EAST - ATLANTIC DIVISION
1. Philadelphia 76ers*
2. New York Knicks*
3. Boston Celtics*
4. New Jersey Nets*
5. Toronto Raptors

CENTRAL DIVISION
1. Detroit Pistons*
2. Indiana Pacers*
3. Cleveland Cavaliers*
4. Milwaukee Bucks
5. Chicago Bulls

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
1. Miami Heat*
2. Orlando Magic
3. Washington Wizards
4. Atlanta Hawks
5. Charlotte Bobcats

WEST - NORTHWEST DIVISION
1. Minnesota Timberwolves*
2. Utah Jazz*
3. Denver Nuggets*
4. Portland Trail Blazers
5. Seattle SuperSonics

PACIFIC DIVISION
1. Los Angeles Lakers*
2. Sacramento Kings*
3. Phoenix Suns
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Golden State Warriors

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
1. San Antonio Spurs*
2. Dallas Mavericks*
3. Houston Rockets*
4. Memphis Grizzlies
5. New Orleans Hornets

EAST FINALS: Detroit over Miami

WEST FINALS: San Antonio over Utah

NBA FINALS: San Antonio over Detroit (I know, real original)

NBA MVP: Tim Duncan, San Antonio

COACH OF THE YEAR: Jim O'Brien, Philadelphia

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: With this lousy crop of rookies, who cares?

SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR: Matt Harpring, Utah

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER: Marquis Daniels, Dallas

1. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS*

For Philadelphia fans, it would be best if they just pretended that last year never happened. That's right, they never had a head coach named Randy Ayers, they never touted Glenn Robinson as their Big Frontcourt Solution, none of it ever really happened. If Sixers fans can go into this season with that frame of mind, they might find a lot to be optimistic about. Cautiously optimistic, to be sure, but optimistic nonetheless.

Granted, pieces may actually start falling off of Allen Iverson by season's end, but he remains one of the few players who can elevate his team's chances night in and night out, who can put an entire cliche . . . er, team on his back in a big game. And now, after last year's disaster, he has a competent coach to work with - no, scratch that, much more than a competent coach. A coach who very nearly led the Celtics to the Finals a few years ago.

But, then again, the Sixers face the same old problem: where to find scoring outside of Iverson. Robinson, last year's big signing, didn't exactly pan out. In fact, I got to thinking: if there was an NBA equivalent of the Designated Hitter, Glenn Robinson would be it. Think about it - when healthy, he can be a nice offensive player (second or third option), but he is to defense what A.C. Green was to sex. Robinson won't be counted on in much of a capacity this year - most likely he'll be traded soon, and if not, he'll be coming off the bench, and I don't mean as the sixth man.

While the Sixers may still be lacking in another viable scoring threat, what they do have is depth. Off the bench they have Aaron McKie and Corliss Williamson - two former Sixth Man of the Year winners. On their front line, they have three solid players in Kenny Thomas, Samuel Dalembert and Brian Skinner. All three are good on the defensive end, but while they can score if they need to, they're not exactly going to scare a team like Detroit.

2. NEW YORK KNICKS*

Okay, new rule: For the 2004-05 season at least, the NBA's Atlantic Division should not feature a second-place team. They should just have first place and then move right on into third. That's how wretched this division has become.

Seriously folks - someone has to come in second, and it might as well be the Knicks, who wouldn't stand a chance of making the playoffs were they in the Western Conference. This is a lottery team that will make the playoffs only by default. One thing's for sure - when Vince Carter officially gets put on the trading block this year, the Knicks will be first in line. Because all this team needs is another overrated, overpaid, overhyped me-first player who doesn't play defense, doesn't make his teammates better, and has no idea how to play within a system. Yeah, because the Knicks don't have enough of those yet. It'll be a perfect marriage. I can't believe this team is going to make the playoffs. Isiah Thomas is an idiot.

3. BOSTON CELTICS*

Forget about Shaq joining the Miami Heat. Forget the T-Mac/Steve Francis deal, and Kenyon Martin in Denver, and Steve Nash in Phoenix, and - dare I say it - even forget about the Eric Piatkowski deal in Chicago. For no one made an offseason splash quite like the Boston Celtics, as they dipped into the waters of free agency and came up with two of the league's top players: Gary Payton and Tom Gugliotta!!!

Oh . . .sorry, for a second there I thought it was 1996. My bad.

I find it rather amusing that the Celtics are counting on the most irritable, unpredictable backcourt in league history - Payton and Ricky Davis - to take them back to the playoffs. I find it even more amusing - or perhaps depressing - that it will probably work in this conference, though a first-round sweep at the hands of Detroit or Miami is inevitable. Maybe after this year, when Payton is retired, when Googs remembers that he hasn't had any cartilage in his knees since 1998, when Al Jefferson and Delonte West are ready for some major playing time - maybe then, Boston can make something happen, provided Danny Ainge doesn't somehow screw it up with another idiotic trade like he did last year. But as for right now, the team is counting on Jiri Welsch for a spark off the bench. Things aren't good.

On the bright side, when Raef LaFrentz goes down with a season-ending injury (Vegas has it tabbed at sometime in early December), we'll all catch a glimpse of Jefferson's considerable potential. Other than that, Celtics fans will have to settle for watching the Payton and Davis sideshow, LaFrentz and Walter McCarty launching desperate threes for no reason whatsoever, and of course, the incomparable Mark Blount. Ainge has only one possible solution: David Ortiz.

4. NEW JERSEY NETS*

I realize that Alvin Williams is this team's starting center. I realize that Ron Mercer is manning the 2-spot. I realize that Jacque Vaughn will be running this team until Jason Kidd gets back . . .that is, if Kidd ever plays again for New Jersey. And I realize that somebody named Zoran Planinic will see playing time. I've factored all these things in - and once again, it all comes down to the fact that EIGHT TEAMS FROM THE EASTERN CONFERENCE have to make the playoffs. I don't make the rules - I just have to live with them. I had to pick somebody for that eighth spot. You got any better ideas? Hey, don't give me that Orlando Magic junk. That team is bad news. So New Jersey it is.

Of course, if Kidd gets traded, all bets are off. Letting Kenyon Martin go, without even a fight, was a Donald Sterling-worthy offseason gaffe.

5. TORONTO RAPTORS

You look at this team on paper and it's easy to get swept away by the talent level. We've already addressed Vince Carter, so we'll let that rest for now. But this team has got an excellent and criminally underappreciated forward in Donyell Marshall, a great young post player in Chris Bosh, a former league MVP finalist in Jalen Rose, and a rookie center, Rafael Araujo, who could turn into a really good player, really fast.

But if any of you saw the Raptors play last year, you know why everyone's picking them for the cellar.

1. DETROIT PISTONS*

The last time a Larry Brown-coached team went to the NBA Finals, Brown went into the offseason and paid good money for Derrick Coleman. Needless to say for anyone who has followed the NBA, things didn't exactly work out. So last year, Brown's Pistons were in the Finals, and he won a well-deserved first title. And what did he do? He went right out and signed Derrick Coleman during the offseason.

For all his merits as a coach - and he is, without a doubt, about as good as it gets - Brown has been known to make a few mistakes evaluating free agents - basically, he's tried to fix something that wasn't broken. His Sixers team was the best in the East in 2000-2001, and the Coleman signing absolutely ruined the team's chemistry the following year. Now, I'm not saying the same will happen this year; I'm just playing devil's advocate. But I will say, after looking at the Detroit roster, there is one glaring weakness on this team: a complete lack of depth. Obviously Brown was trying to help fix that with the signing of Coleman, and maybe this time around he'll be just right. But right now, he's a wild card. Their other significant signing, Antonio McDyess, has hardly played this century, and the rest of the bench includes an Italian rookie named Carlos Delfino, the ancient Lindsey Hunter, and of course Darko - who, just to refresh your memory, tried to pierce his own ears last year and got them infected, and when he finally got on the court, he promptly shattered his hand ON THE RIM. (What, they didn't have rims in Serbia?)

That's all I'm saying, people. The Pistons were lucky to have their whole lineup healthy last year - if their luck continues this year, pencil them in for the Finals. If not, that opens the door for the other two or three teams in the East that are worth anything.

2. INDIANA PACERS*

The Pacers face a dilemma - okay, a couple of dilemmas, but we'll start with the Shooting Guard dilemma first. After the offseason swap of Al Harrington for Stephen Jackson, the Pacers now have two shooting guards who both think they're WAY better than they actually are. Reggie Miller has been plagued with this problem for a few years now, apparently still clinging to the greatness of several years ago. Now they add Jackson, a better player than Miller at this point, but someone who parlayed a Jake Delhomme-esque postseason hot streak a couple years back into a sizeable deal with Atlanta last year, where he played really well on a crappy team. Jackson has proven he has the confidence to be a big-time player in the playoffs, but Rick Carlisle is going to have to make sure he doesn't disrupt the chemistry that led this team to a league-best 61 wins last year. Jackson has to understand that he is only Indiana's third-best player.

The fact that Jeff Foster (a player who started all last year, but still no one has any idea who he is) is still the starting center will be a huge problem should the Pacers face the Heat in the playoffs. The vulnerability of the Pacers' front line became apparent last year, and the team did nothing about it in the offseason. If someone like, say, Mehmet Okur works out the way Utah hopes, the Pacers could be kicking themselves for not jumping at the opportunity to sign him.

3. CLEVELAND CAVALIERS*

The truth is, with the exception of LeBron James' inevitable improvement on his excellent rookie season, the Cavaliers are a weaker team than last year's version. Carlos Boozer is a budding star - and not even 23 years old - and they just could not afford to let him go. He was their most consistent player all season, their best rebounder and their only really physical inside presence. And they've replaced him with Yinka Dare . . .er, Drew Gooden, who is not - I repeat, is NOT - poised for a "breakout season." Most of us knew he wasn't anything special when he came out of college a few years ago, but since when did anybody listen to us?

Still, in his second year LeBron is poised to take over this team, and provided he stays healthy, that will mean the playoffs are in store. Especially now that he has two backcourt teammates - Jeff McInnis and Eric Snow - who can spread the ball around and run the floor effectively. James could realistically break into the league's elite this season.

4. MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Wait, the Bucks made the playoffs last year? Hard to believe, but yes. And no, it's not going to happen again. T.J. Ford is out for who knows how long, and Mike James is running the show now. Also, Dan Gadzuric and somebody named Zaza Pachulia make up the depth chart at center. And then there's the Joe Smith Factor - never a good thing for a team with playoff aspirations.

I could wax poetic about the breakout season of Michael Redd, and how he's one of the league's most underappreciated players; and I could whine about how unfairly Keith Van Horn has been treated the past few years, getting traded almost every year despite being a pretty solid second or third option. But I wouldn't want to bore you. This is the Bucks we're talking about.

5. CHICAGO BULLS

Just a reminder, people: Jerry Krause traded Elton Brand for Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry. Okay then.

1. MIAMI HEAT*

As expected, millions of people across the country jumped on the Miami Heat bandwagon this summer the minute they traded for Shaq. Almost as predictably, a lot of them jumped off when they looked at the rest of Miami's roster and realized that, other than Shaq and Dwyane Wade, the Heat are basically the Atlanta Hawks.

This is basically a two-man show in Miami, since Miami dealt almost all of its quality players to get Shaq. Eddie Jones could make this a solid trio, but with his history of injuries and crunch-time choke jobs, along with his advancing age, I wouldn't count on him too much. So outside of O'Neal, Wade and Jones, the Heat don't have any other established players.

Well . . .wait, I take that back. Christian Laettner is quite established at sucking, and completely wasting all of his talent. But that wasn't quite what I meant. Let's move on. If you have faith in guys like Rasual Butler, Keyon Dooling, Wesley Person, Udonis Haslem, Damon Jones and Malik Allen, then go ahead and stay on that bandwagon. I'm sure it's very comfortable. Then perhaps, come June, Shaq and Wade can join you on it, and you can all watch the NBA Finals on TV together.

2. ORLANDO MAGIC

For the last time: Grant Hill is NOT GETTING ANY BETTER. This is the fourth year in a row he's told us that his degenerative ankle feels better than ever, and this is the fourth year in a row that some people have actually bought it. You poor, poor fools.

As for the rest of the team, just look closely. Their entire frontcourt is Hill, Dwight Howard (a raw, 18-year-old rookie) and Kelvin Cato. This will be the Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley show. And while both players can put points on the board, they can't put the Magic in the playoffs by themselves.

3. WASHINGTON WIZARDS

I don't really know what to say about this team. It's the same team every year. A couple of talented offensive weapons, the team doesn't look too bad on paper, a few people start thinking they could be a sleeper team, and then what happens? The team is out of the playoff race by January and ends up winning 22 games. Expect the trend to continue. Antawn Jamison, Gilbert Arenas, Larry Hughes, blah blah blah. This team stinks. This team will always stink.

4. ATLANTA HAWKS

So?

5. CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

The starting lineup is Jason Hart, Gerald Wallace, Jason Kapono, Emeka Okafor, and Primoz Brezec. Their best backup is Brevin Knight. They brought in 52-year-old Steve Smith to be their "veteran sharpshooter." If their current roster had played together last year, their leading scorer would have been Eddie House, with 6.8 points per game. They named the team after the owner's first name. They have terrible uniforms, which is never good karma for an expansion team. And - oh yeah - they inexplicably hired the worthless Bernie Bickerstaff to run this team. I can think of no harsher punishment than forcing someone to watch this team 41 times in a six-month span. Um . . .go Hornets.

1. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES*

I'm not saying the T-Wolves are going to duplicate the regular season they had last year, but this is still a pretty great team, provided Latrell Sprewell and Sam Cassell are healthy and happy. I mean, if Cassell and Troy Hudson had been healthy in the playoffs last year, Minnesota probably would have taken out the Lakers.

Quick sidebar: I don't mean to rain on their parade, because I love Kevin Garnett as much as anybody, but last year's playoffs proved one thing: Tim Duncan, and not Garnett, is without a doubt the most valuable player in the league. Give Duncan Garnett's supporting cast and that team beats the Pistons for the title. No question.

2. UTAH JAZZ*

Yes, they really are that good. Conventional wisdom says the Nuggets are a better team than the Jazz, and they should finish in second place instead of Utah. But from a sheer coaching standpoint, Denver's Jeff Bzdelik isn't even in the same stratosphere as Jerry Sloan, who was once again absolutely robbed of the Coach of the Year award last season. (I mean, Hubie Brown did a great job in Memphis, but he had three times the talent Sloan did, and the Grizzlies only won EIGHT MORE GAMES than the Jazz, who many expected to be one of the worst teams in league history last season. What more does Sloan have to do?!)

But I digress. Andrei Kirilenko - who, by the way, is the most amusing postgame interview subject in the league right now - is already, at 23, one of the league's best all-around players, and we have every right to assume he's on the verge of being an absolute superstar. He can simply do everything. Teamed with Carlos Boozer, who is even younger than Kirilenko and is also on the verge of being an elite power forward, newcomer Mehmet Okur and Matt Harpring, and this could be the best rebounding team in the NBA, and is certainly one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Provided point guards Carlos Arroyo and Raul Lopez can build off their modest success running the team last year, this is going to be one of those teams that everyone is terrified to face come playoff time.

Sloan has an uncanny knack for getting way more out of his players than he should. Take Raja Bell, for example, who had a career scoring average of about three points a game before last year, when he averaged 11.2 and, with his typically stellar defense, should have garnered more attention for Sixth Man of the Year consideration. With guys like Bell, Harpring and Giricek playing second fiddle to Kirilenko and Boozer, the Delta Center faithful might be able to get over Malone and Stockton pretty quick.

3. DENVER NUGGETS*

That said, Jeff Bzdelik and the Nuggets are no slouches, either, and they should be one of the most dangerous teams in the league as well, which should pave the way for Phil Jackson's inevitable comeback in Denver next season. (But that's a story for a different day. Let's move on.)

The recent injury to Voshon Lenard will hurt because they don't really have another pure shooter - Lenard's shooting was huge down the stretch last year. But Carmelo Anthony is a legitimate go-to guy; he's the real thing, and he should only improve this year, which may offset Lenard's absence. And yes, Kenyon Martin is the real thing, too. Teamed with Marcus Camby and Nene, Nuggets brass have found the perfect combo. Also, you gotta love a team with a midget for a point guard. Earl Boykins plays a strong backup to Andre Miller.

4. PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS

It's hard to think much of any team that has Joel Przybilla on the roster. It's also hard to think much of a team that is supposedly trying to change its image problem, yet still has Damon Stoudamire, Nick Van Exel, Darius Miles, Ruben Patterson, and now Sebastian Telfair on the roster. The talent level on this team is unbelievable. The wasted talent level - even more so.

5. SEATTLE SUPERSONICS

Vitaly Potapenko. Vladimir Radmanovic. Ibo Kutluay. Well, that was fun.

1. LOS ANGELES LAKERS*

Yes, I do believe that Kobe Bryant is at least most of what he's cracked up to be. A petulant child, yes - but a petulant child with a mean streak who can be the most dominant and most clutch basketball player on the planet. And we all know he's just itching to prove he can do it without Shaq. His supporting cast looks really good on paper, but there will be growing pains, and already there are injuries. It will take time. But I love Lamar Odom as the second option - he proved he could accept that role last year in Miami and he's got top-tier talent. He'll be a nice complement to Kobe.

Once Vlade Divac is healthy, he and Brian Grant will provide some presence down low, though both are aging and have lost a step or two. Kareem Rush is a great shooter to bring off the bench, Caron Butler has potential out the wazoo, and Chucky Atkins is more than able to handle the Derek Fisher-ish quasi-point guard duties. Prepare for the growing pains - but this is still a team to be reckoned with. And just wait til next year.

2. SACRAMENTO KINGS*

Everybody's sick of this team. It's time to trade Webber. And probably Peja. Get a new go-to guy in there, one who doesn't completely fall apart in the playoffs. Keep Bibby and Brad Miller.

Of course, this won't happen. So once again, the Maloof Brothers are counting on the team that looks great on paper, the team that will once again score tons of points, make the playoffs, and then blow it. It's almost too easy.

3. PHOENIX SUNS

This is one of those teams that would probably make the playoffs in the East. As long as he can stay healthy, Steve Nash will make this one of the most exciting offensive teams in the NBA. Now if only he could improve his defense . . . It's hard to count this team out, given the talent level here, but somehow there's just something missing. They have really good players, really talented players like Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion, and good players with even more potential like Quentin Richardson and Joe Johnson. But they just don't have It. I don't know, maybe Stoudemire has a breakout season and becomes a legitimate go-to guy. And maybe, if that happens, the Suns can take a playoff spot away from Houston. But don't count on it just yet. Next year, though. Next year.

4. LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

I find it ironic that Elton Brand, Corey Maggette and Trajan Langdon were all prominent members of that Duke team that choked away the championship against UConn a few years back - and now they're all playing for the Clippers. Does anyone else get a good chuckle out of that, or is it just me? Good times.

Also, this team has Stiff White Center - aka Chris Kaman - as their great white hope, and they're counting on Marko Jaric and Kerry Kittles to man the backcourt. I don't need to tell you all this - I just think it's funny talking about all the players the Clippers are "counting on," as if anybody on the team believes they ever have a chance. What a worthless organization.

5. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

This is a public service announcement, notifying you that Clifford Robinson - yes, that Clifford Robinson - is still playing in the NBA, this year for the good ol' Warriors. He and Adonal Foyle make quite a team, eh?

Also, Mike Dunleavy, Jr. - another member of that infamous Duke team - is playing for the only team that's worse off than the Clips. Good times.

1. SAN ANTONIO SPURS*

Pretty much anything I could say has been said too much already. This is the team that should have represented the West in the NBA Finals last year, if they hadn't self-destructed after Derek Fisher's fluke buzzer-beater. That won't happen again. Tim Duncan is the best player in the league, period, and one can never underestimate the Manu Ginobili Factor.

2. DALLAS MAVERICKS*

I always like this team, I always kind of root for this team, even though I know it will be futile once the playoffs roll around - and I don't just mean because of Don Nelson. I love the talent on this team, even though they don't play defense. I love Dirk Nowitzki, even though he hasn't really improved much over the past couple of seasons. I love how exciting this team is to watch, year in and year out, despite the postseason disappointments. I love Mark Cuban, even though he's kind of an idiot sometimes, and even despite "The Benefactor." I love the potential of Marquis Daniels, who will probably end up at the point once Nelson and the Dallas coaches realize how much Jason Terry stinks as a floor general.

3. HOUSTON ROCKETS*

I was this close to picking the Grizzlies to make the playoffs over the Rockets, but in the end I couldn't do it. I'm a wuss. I'm weak. If Memphis makes a big deadline deal, it still might happen, but with the teams as they are right now, I'll put my bets on Houston. I like Jeff Van Gundy as a coach - defense will keep the Rockets in just about every game, even if the offense isn't clicking. But the problem is their big offseason pickup is a guy who has, thus far, done exactly nothing in the NBA. Tracy McGrady pouted his way out of Toronto, and then pouted his way out of Orlando, and he's pouted his way into Houston. He's proven himself to be among the league's great scorers, but that's about it. What he hasn't done is a lot - I don't know, play defense, play for the good of the team, WIN. Small things like that.

Once they picked McGrady up, of course there were the idiots like the L.A. Times' Bill Plaschke who said the Rockets were automatically the team to beat in the West. Uh-huh.

No. This team is a work in progress. McGrady is a work in progress, one with great potential. And even their biggest star, Yao Ming, hasn't lived up to his hype - YET. I'm not saying he's not going to be great; I'm saying it's not a sure thing. He's like Michael Vick . . .except a basketball player. And taller. And Chinese. But you get what I'm saying. This team isn't ready for prime time just yet. Trust me.

4. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Is Pau Gasol a go-to guy? Will the old Jason Williams spontaneously emerge at some point this season? Will Mike Miller ever become a more consistent scorer? Is James Posey for real? Why did the Grizzlies steal UCLA's logo? Will Bonzi Wells kill someone this year? Will Shane Battier ever do something about his bizarre, wrinkled head?

Just asking.

5. NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

Baron Davis, still this team's best player, was a prominent member of the 2002 Team USA World Championships Team. That should tell you something. Their second-best player, Jamal Mashburn, is unsurprisingly out for the year. This is an old, old, old, old team. I like Byron Scott as a coach, but unfortunately he's been stuck in the NBA's toughest division with this terribly old group of guys. I sure hope the New Orleans faithful do a better job supporting the Hornets than they did last year, but it's going to be tough to support this team. Um . . .go Jazz.

Copyright © 2004 by Chris Bellamy

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